They were also had to win all their road playoff games, which during the time, was unheard of. Jeremy Fowler polled a panel of more than 50 coaches, execs, scouts and players to come up with top-10 rankings for 2021: Edge | Interior DL | LB Eli Manning did it to the Patriots again. BUT this 14-2 Atlanta Falcons team was no slouch. I have multiple tickets on the Jags - win the division, wins over, win the Super Bowl. However, New York went just 10-6 in the regular season. Chicago Bears +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total). The model gains confidence because of all of the returning starters from an already good unit. The Doomsday Defense vs. the Orange Crush ended up being a forgettable, one-sided affair. 1 in just about every projection you can imagine, including projected wins (11.5) and chances to reach the playoffs (89%), win their division (72%), be the No. If the Kansas City Chiefs didn't have a generational quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and a Hall of Fame head coach in Andy Reid, the Bills would have reached their first Super Bowl in 27 years. Houston Texans +20000 (bet $10 to win $2010 total), Lowest win total on the board, uncertainty at QB, and a defense that cant stop a nose bleed.. And Chicago finds itself with eight games against FPI's top 10 teams: at Rams, at Browns, at Bucs, vs. 49ers, vs. Ravens, at Seahawks and then a home-and-home with the Packers. WebTechnically the truth. Adding a consistent pass rush will make this team more competitive, but competing for a Super Bowl appears to be years away. And that's embodied by an extreme result: The NFC East is the only division that recorded a simulation with a five-win champion. Another Broncos blowout. Arizona has the potential to shock the NFL and win 11-plus games, emerging victorious in a strong NFC West. Check out the full strength of schedule rankings here. Again, FPI doesn't think the division is much-improved. Including the next one. 1 pick, Ex-Patriots star McGinest facing eight years in prison, Commanders rip 'blatantly false' team sale report, Last Super Bowl appearance: 2016 (Super Bowl 50), Last Super Bowl appearance: 2017 (Super Bowl LI), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1990 (Super Bowl XXIII), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1995 (Super Bowl XXIX), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1977 (Super Bowl XI), Last Super Bowl appearance: 2009 (Super Bowl XLIII), Last Super Bowl appearance: 2000 (Super Bowl XXXIV), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1994 (Super Bowl XXVIII). The Cardinals defense significantly improved with the addition of J.J. Watt and the return of Chandler Jones on the pass rush. Reporting on what you care about. The Ravens and Browns rank fourth and sixth in FPI rating -- basically true talent level -- but are fifth and seventh in chances to reach the playoffs and win the Super Bowl, respectively. Keep in mind, those numbers assume there is some chance Wentz plays in each of these games, particularly the later ones. According to statistics, the 2011 New York Giants. Which is funny considering the team they beat, the 2011 Patriots, would have also been the worst The game was expected to be a blowout Green Bay was favored by 13.5 points and it was. CB | Safety | OT | Interior OL The eventual champion Colts committed seven, count them, seven turnovers. They had a top 5 offense and defense. Poor Bengal fans will never watch a 49ers game with a smile (unless they're losing). Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. Sam Darnold cannot go from worst QB in the NFL (by some metrics) to winning the Super Bowl in twelve months. That's right, a team with Jerry Rice had a running back gain more receiving yards. Keep in mind, the Larry Fitzgerald touchdown catch (pictured above) was to go ahead with 2:37 left in the game. It was called the "Blunder Bowl" for a reason. ODonnell set Larry Browns family up for life with his dreadful performance. But they have arguably the toughest schedule in the NFC (nine games against playoff teams from 2020), including a stretch that goes: at Baltimore, at Chargers, home vs Aaron Rodgers, at the 49ers. Arizona was on its way to the playoffs before Kyler Murray's shoulder injury limited him late in the season, hurting a potential All-Pro campaign. Herbert will have more protection to connect with a talented cast of offensive weapons as the Chargers rebuilt their offensive line centered around All-Pro Corey Linsley and first-round pick Rashawn Slater. The "Greatest Show On Turf" was the potential dynasty derailed by New England Patriots. He's a key piece in guiding Tennessee to its first championship. They face an NFL-high three teams coming off a bye week. However, like most teams on this list, the Steelers had one glaring deficiency: the passing game. The Philadelphia Eagles were the most recent team to leave the "never won a Super Bowl" club, but the league only has three first-time Super Bowl winners since the start of the 2009 season. So its only fitting that the winner of Super Bowl 53 will have a defense that finished the regular season below the league average. And the NFC South doesn't have any other teams ranked in FPI's top 10. The biggest preseason long shot to win the Super Bowl was the 1999 St. Louis Rams behind unknown QB Kurt Warner; the Rams were 300-1. Here are the 10 teams most likely to win Super Bowl LV: Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay is still not that likely, however. The game that gave us all of those 28-3 jokes. They started 1-7, fought back into playoff contention, and cratered down the stretch behind backup QB Colt McCoy.. Buffalo has a top 10 pass defense led by one of the game's best cornerbacks in Tre'Davious White and Pro Bowl snub Jordan Poyer, but the run defense has to improve to beat a team like Kansas City. Super Bowl MVP Pick. Dilfer bounced around many teams in his career, but he was lucky enough to helm the Baltimore Ravens to a Super Bowl victory on the strength of their history-making defense. But even with all that, its not even the best Super Bowl of the last two years. Quick, use one word to describe Super Bowl XL in Detroit. Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley was awarded that honor (one that he refused to accept). Out of 35 qualified quarterbacks last season, Darnold finished 33rd in completion percentage, 30th in interception percentage, 32nd in yards per attempt, and 35th in passer rating. The Lions are the next-most likely team to earn the No. Yes, the Chiefs -- not the Super Bowl-champion Buccaneers -- are projected to be the best team and also have the best chances to hoist the Lombardi trophy next February. This unit -- like the offense -- has the potential to be an elite group. Kirk Cousins may not be elite, but he's a pretty good quarterback. Trent Dilfer. This Baltimore Colts was coached by Don Shula and averaged 28.7 points per game in the '60s. Its the only Super Bowl where a member of the losing team won MVP. TEAM DATE ROUND TM OPP RESULT W TD 1DWN OFF OPP OFF 3DWN% 4DWN% Los Angeles Rams: 2/13/2022: Super Bowl: LAR @ CIN. That tops the 2020 Jaguars, who entered last season at 23% and ended up earning that No. Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time. FPI is working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson will not play for the Texans this season. WebPer Reuters, the NFL issued a cease-and-desist order to a Las Vegas law firm over a Super Bowl commercial featuring Raiders DE Maxx Crosby. A four-game stretch bridging October and November vs Bills, vs Chiefs, at Colts, at Rams should seal their fate. 6) Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Green Bay looked as if it would blow the Steelers out but Ben Roethlisberger led a rally that cut the lead from 18 to three before Mason Crosby put the game away with a field goal. The AFC West belongs to the Kansas City Chiefs, but second place is there for the taking. Watson led the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt, carrying an offense that finished 31st in the league in rushing. Maybe the biggest forgotten gem in sports history. Baltimore has a unique spot on this list because its inclusion is not based on mediocre talent (it had players like Bubba Smith and Johnny Unitas) or that it struggled to win games (the Colts went 11-2-1). Buffalo is on the doorstep of reaching the league championship game, thanks to the emergence of Josh Allen as one of the game's best quarterbacks. Between free agency and players opting back in from 2020, New England had a massive talent infusion.. On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady & Co. are projected to be the No. Use of this website (including any and all parts and components) constitutes your acceptance of these, place your futures bets on who is going to win, Every NFL team's 2021 win totals, ranked from worst to best bet. Oh, if they only handed the ball off the Marshawn Lynch. Who do you think was the best team to not win a Super Bowl. Unfortunately, they had to go head-to-head with arguably the greatest defense of all-time in the '85 Bears. Cleveland hasn't been in a position to win a Super Bowl since Bernie Kosar led the franchise to consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances in the mid-1980s. 9. Jacksonville was the worst team in the league last year, but the Jaguars were competitive in half of their games (seven of their losses were by one score). It has been updated to include Super Bowl LII. Cleveland already has one of the game's best pass rushers in Myles Garrett and cornerbacks in Denzel Ward. Watch more top videos, highlights, and B/R original content, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Bettis got his ring before retirement andthe Steelersgreatly overachieved in the process. Unless Tua Tagovailoa makes a Josh Allen-type leap and the offensive line improves, theres just no shot at the Super Bowl. For a team with quarterback uncertainty, it could be much worse. Ranking 12 teams that never won a Super Bowl by best chance Teams that barely squeak into the playoffs with a wild-card berth have become frequent commodities on this list, so it only feels appropriate to include the first wild-card team to ever win the Super Bowl. You can make a case that every team that endured the best shots from every one of their opponents throughout the season, found a way to win enough They play in an easy division and should be able to host a playoff game. The defense got a huge boost with the signing of Haason Reddick and top 10 pick Jaycee Horn, but Carolina still has to deal with Tampa Bay and New Orleans in the NFC South. Discover unique things to do, places to eat, and sights to see in the best destinations around the world with Bring Me! Dick Vermeil's boys just missed out on the Lombardi Trophy with one bad day. Dallas Cowboys +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total), Realistically, Dallas is in the second tier of teams that could win the Super Bowl.. and quarterback rating (112.4). 1 pick than the 2021 Houston Texans, at 24%. A crummy game turned into an instant classic thanks to a brilliant game-winning drive authored by Joe Montana. Winning close games and narrowly escaping the agony of defeat is one way to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and while that path may not be the most exciting or exhilarating, it has been traveled on multiple occasions. The Super Bowl has been around 55 years, yet more than a third of the league has never hoisted a Vince Lombardi Trophy. Pittsburgh Steelers +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Their win total is 8.5, yet Mike Tomlin has never finished under .500 as coach of the Steelers. Green and Rondale Moore at wide receiver. The Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos have been involved in some of the worst Super Bowls, but so have the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys. Four NFL teams the Browns, Lions, Jaguars, and Texans have never appeared in the Super Bowl. Here is a quarterback guru who never could quite develop a quarterback as a head coach. Matt Rhule is building something in Carolina as he enters his second year, taking a chance he can resurrect Sam Darnold's career. There are quite a few contenders to win their first Super Bowl in 2021, and the two favorites reside in the loaded AFC. Cleveland Browns +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total), Are the Browns a better team than the Cowboys? W. 23-20. Kind of pains me to say it, but it was the 2011 Giants. They shipped 400 points that year in the regular season and normally that leads to a losing The game was won with Ben Roethlisbergers perfect pass to Santonio Holmes, who somehow got two feet down in the back of the end zone. Let us first acknowledge that four future Hall of Famers were drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1974 (Lynn Swann, Jack Lambert, John Stallworth and Mike Webster). The presence of Lawrence gives Jacksonville hope for the first time in years. The game did not feature nearly as dramatic an ending as the rest of the top-10, but it was a game full of Hall of Famers all playing at a high level. Unsung, their defense only allowed 17.1 points per game. I'm sure fans in Baltimore still curse Joe Namath's Super Bowl guarantee. The 1991 Redskins might be the greatest team in NFL history, which bumps this game up a few spots. The game was so bad that the MVP award did not even go to a member of the winning team. The Bills could not close the deal in this four-year span, and most frustrating of all, all these teams were pretty well-balanced. Adding Marvin Jones to a young receiving unit that already includes Laviska Shenault Jr. and D.J. A 4.47 shuttle is extremely rare. The Vikings have made the playoffs every odd-year season since coach Mike Zimmer took over in 2014, which bodes well for them in 2021. This Bills team should have won a Super Bowl and it is hard to believe looking back. He also has the most game-winning drives and tied for the most fourth-quarter comebacks in that span. A 97 team that wasn't top 10 in anything really. 51. Matt Stafford, on the other hand, is learning a new offense, albeit with a smart coach and talented skill players. Division favorites, win totals and the NFL's best (and worst) teams: Takeaways from the 2021 projections, The future of the NFL combine: Is there really a chance it could end forever? Here they are ranked: It was a lot of fun to research these teams to remember just how good they were their respective seasons. Any NFL fan intuitively knows that basing strength of schedule on the previous season's record is a fool's errand because teams' abilities change too much from year to year to go off that, not to mention the fact that a single NFL season is not always a great indicator for the talent of a team. Complete team-by-team FPI projections That alone earned the game a spot this high on the list. A full explanation for how FPI works can be found here, but here's the abridged version: The model determines forward-looking strength ratings for every team based on a variety of factors, including team win total, projected starting quarterback, returning starters and past performance on offense, defense and special teams. When thinking about the 1990 season, it is hard to conjure up images of anything other than Buffalo Bills kicker Scott Norwood missing a potential Super Bowl-winning kick. Super Bowl LIV (Source: KC Kingdom) Chiefs won the Super Bowl with a 31-20 score, their first since Super Bowl IV and after the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Ken Anderson led his team to 124. They're returning the 2020 MVP and had the league's most efficient offense last year -- yes, even better than Kansas City's. It was a sloppy game that was marred by questionable refereeing, but Bill Cowher and Jerome Bettis finally winning a Lombardi Trophy thanks to Willie Parkers record-setting touchdown run and Hines Ward throwing for a score made this a memorable Super Bowl. But the Super Bowl? In a season without a normal offseason due to the pandemic, the 142 defending champs looked like easy Super Bowl favorites. The Kansas City Chiefs, winners of Super Bowl 57, are the favorites at +600. Jalen Hurts will not pull a Kurt Warner this year and lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl.. This game mightve been higher on the list if the Jets hadnt pulled off the AFL-NFL upset the prior season. Tough division, and they open with three of four on the road. 3) Only one of their final seven opponents has a season win total under 8.5. It helps that the Browns arguably have a top three offensive line in football (if not the best). He finished fourth in the league in completion percentage (69.2), fifth in passing yards, fifth in passing touchdowns, and fourth in passer rating -- while also rushing for 421 yards and eight touchdowns. Both Cowboys-Bills Super Bowl were blowouts, but this one was at least competitive into the third quarter. Andy Reids never-ending two-minute drill robbed us of what could have been an exciting ending. The AFL just wasn't ready yet, but they were still very good for AFL standards with an 11-2-1 record. Its more fun to speculate on the Bears QB race than it is their actual Super Bowl chances., 24. The Bengals should be better, but they aren't close to competing for a championship yet -- especially residing in the AFC North. They had an outstanding defense, and thats what won them the There's enough depth to get by. The first half ended with James Harrisons lung-busting interception return. What will the Buffalo Bills do without defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier? It has to be the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. Up 28-3 at the end of the third quarter, they couldn't hold off the Patriots in the biggest game of the year The Kansas City Chiefs might have lost Super Bowl LV, but they are still the NFL team to beat this season, according to the new ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) projections for 2021. 2023 NFL Draft odds: Will Georgia's Stetson Bennett get selected? "Broadway Joe" completed just 49.2 percent of his passes during the season and threw two more interceptions (17) than he did touchdowns (15). But Elways scramble which ended with him being helicoptered in the air remains the most memorable visual from the game. A great passing defense helped elevate this Vikings team to a 122 record. I'll take my chances on a 1-in-15 shot that the Niners put all the pieces back together and raise the Lombardi in February. Ah, the iconic image of Trent Dilfer hoisting his arms in victory. One playoff win and taking the Kansas City Chiefs to the brink last season opened opportunities for the Browns, who possess one of the most talented rosters in the conference. WebJim Caldwell is may be the worst coach to ever make it to the Super Bowl, but he didn't win. An 115 team that didn't exceed in anything, but had John Elway. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. If not for the dramatic ending, this game may have finished last on this list. We have all heard this "Cinderella story" one too many times, but it's worth going over for the purposes of this piece. (Hey, at least it worked out for them with Trevor Lawrence being available.). QB | RB | WR | TE FPI then uses those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times to create projections. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson don't lack confidence at NFL combine, Bettors are backing Bears, Lions, Jets to make, win Super Bowl, NFLPA report cards show link between player-friendly coaches and winning, Georgia's Nolan Smith turns heads with blazing 40 at NFL combine, Alabama QB Bryce Young confident in abilities, downplays questions about frame, Stroud opposes Bears drafting him, defends Fields: 'That's his team', Sharp: Ravens have themselves to blame for not getting Lamar Jackson help, 49ers offseason preview: Potential Super Bowl team must figure out QB spot. The Falcons still have Matt Ryan at quarterback, who has thrown for the most passing yards in the league over the last three years and has a emerging star in Calvin Ridley and a game-changing tight end in rookie first-rounderKyle Pitts. A solid team all around, but more importantly, proficient on offense and defense. Denver has eight games against FPI's bottom 10 teams: at Giants, at Jaguars, vs. Ron Jaworski, Harold Carmichael, and Wilbert Montgomery all had a part in this offense. We hold major institutions accountable and expose wrongdoing. Joe Montanas first Super Bowl win was nearly squandered after the 49ers let the Bengals nearly erase a 20-point deficit. This team is just two years removed from the AFC Championship Game and is in position to "win now." This 97 Cardinals team scored 78. Stefon Diggs is one of the game's best wide receivers and Gabriel Davis is one of the underrated young wideouts in the league. The Vikings uncharacteristically had a poor defense in 2020, ranking 29th in points allowed after finishing as a top 10 unit the previous five seasons. 17. Even the worst of the second-place teams showed they could have won it all. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens featured one of the most stifling defenses ever assembled, allowing only 970 rushing yards all season and five rushing touchdowns. Why? 1 pick. This is the first game on this list that was actually competitive going into the fourth quarter, but it was a sloppy affair featuring seven fumbles and a pair of interceptions. Bradshaw would go on to complete just 67 passes for 785 yards, seven touchdowns and eight interceptions in his limited action. ELEVEN! Im all aboard the Trevor Lawrence bandwagon., 8. Zaven Collins has strong NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year capabilities and Isaiah Simmons is expected to take a huge step in his second year. One team (Patriots) in the last 25 years has been to three straight.. ), or the second-half Seahawks (only topped 30 points once in the final seven games, and it was vs the hapless Jets)?, Seattle has lost three of its past four playoff games and not made the NFC title game since 2014., 11. The Jaguars and Jets are back-to-back in FPI's rankings -- at Nos. Terry Bradshaw and Franco Harris took over the game from there. 20 David Tyree: 2008 Giants Known for his improbable catch in the Super Bowl and how it essentially won the Giants the game, it also hasn't been lost that Tyree was just a mediocre player at best, at any point during his career. They went 3-0.. As Rodgers' future hung in the balance over the summer, so too did the Packers' projections. More NFL coverage . Los Angeles is going to score points this year. So their overall grade suffered. Now, by most accounts, the Steelers were great in 1974. The Chiefs win Although the Rams are FPI's top team of the bunch, San Francisco is actually the favorite here. Some may argue this should be higher than third, but, before Scott Norwoods infamous miss, the Giants and Bills did not give us a very exciting game. Defensively, they were 22nd in points scored against, and it showed in the Super Bowl. 31. It's all about the schedule. 55) Super Bowl XLVIII (2013) The 2013 Seahawks were able to take advantage of this game to solidify themselves as an all-time NFL defense. The Buffalo Bills are coming off their first conference championship game appearance since 1993 while the Cleveland Browns won their first playoff game since 1995. 2004-2023 CBS Interactive. But the rest of the roster is important, too. Cam Newton had an MVP season to remember and ran an offense that produced 31.3 points per game. Thats NFL history. Nobody has a tougher September schedule: vs Seattle, vs the Rams, at Tennessee, at Miami, at Baltimore. Same goes for this one. Matt Rhule is a coach whose stock Im buying low.. In fact, he is widely regarded as one of the worst starting quarterbacks to ever win a Super Bowl. A great defense and front seven, but their running game hit on all cylinders with 2.305 total team rushing yards. With a hostage crisis in Iran taking attention away from the game, the Raiders and Eagles made sure Americans too concerned to tune into a football game didnt miss much. Tannehill is second in the league in passer rating (110.6), second in touchdown percentage (7.2) and first in yards per attempt (8.55). Plenty of star power like Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Donald, and Ndamukong Suh. What puts Baltimore on this list is the lack of offensive prowess. First place on this list scored 140 points in my grading system. Craving even more NFL coverage focusing on previews, recaps, news and analysis? San Francisco finished the regular season at just 10-6, and the leading receiver was none other than Roger Craig. Were on a run of blowouts now. It seems odd to think of Terry Bradshaw as a problem, but in 1974 he took over for Joe Gilliam. 13. FPI considers Houston more than a touchdown worse than an average NFL team on a neutral field and believes the Texans simultaneously have the worst offense The 10 Worst NFL Teams to Ever Win a Super Bowl - Sportscasting This might be controversial among Bills fans, but this team was just as good as the year before. If you look at the teams in this stratosphere, theres a lot of continuity at the coordinator positions and, obviously, head coach and QB. All Rights Reserved. That's ridiculous. OK, so this game was never in doubt, this was Bill Walshs 49ers dynasty at its apex. Super Bowl V. Los Angeles Chargers +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total), The world loves the Chargers after Justin Herberts incredible rookie year (record-setting 31 TDs). 3 overall pick Trey Lance entering the season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks all rank in the top half of the most difficult schedules. The teams combined for 11 turnovers. 11 in the league, per FPI) isn't a problem with that kind of strength on the other side of the ball. The best chance they had and they were wide right. This was a great Super Bowl, but can we stop saying the Titans were one yard short of winning it? With an 11-2-1 record, this group was one of many Vikings teams that should have won the big game. The Lions are in the first year of a rebuild, as Dan Campbell looks to change the culture of a franchise that has just one playoff win over the last 63 years. Pittsburgh was just 7-5 through 12 games. 5 offense. The Cowboys first Super Bowl win was a snooze-fest. Tom Brady also led a top offense in his MVP season, finishing with a 133 regular-season record. Wait, Dilfer isn't iconic. A smart strategy? They were the 3rd best scoring offense in the league, but 28th on defense. And to help you out, we ranked all 32 teams ahead of this season by the value on the odds they'll win the Super Bowl.. Unfortunately for them, that stopped in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. Washington, despite being the reigning champ and making an improvement at quarterback in the form of Ryan Fitzpatrick, is second (29%), followed by the Giants (15%) and Eagles (11%). Sure, it was a massive upset and Joe Namaths guarantee adds to the lore, but the game itself was a bore. The Titans thrust themselves into Super Bowl contention with the offseason addition of Julio Jones, a massive upgrade over departed free agent Corey Davis. Because there is a salary cap. When teams win the players want raises forcing teams to lose some players. This is what is happening to Green Bay an When Indianapolis traded for Wentz, the organization bet on a bounce-back year from the former Eagles quarterback. Of course, it is impossible to label a Super Bowl-winning team as average, but this 49ers team was certainly not up to par with others. This year, theres a chance theyre 4-0 heading into a week five game against the Cowboys. Granted, having Simms on the field would have undoubtedly bolstered the Giants offensive attack in the postseason, but this is not a countdown of "what ifs" and "should have beens.". A.J. FPI has created preseason projections every year since 2015, and the 2021 Chiefs rank third out of the seven favorites, behind the 2017 Patriots (32%) and 2020 Chiefs (22%). The first five weeks of Indianapolis' schedule are rough, as the Colts host the Seahawks and Rams before hitting the road to face the Titans, Dolphins and Ravens. If they had finished better than 124, this team would have been a top 5 Super Bowl runner-up. Four teams have yet to even reach the Super Bowl (two of them started as a franchise after 1990). While Kansas City's 19% chance to win the Super Bowl might be more than any other team's, FPI is also saying that there's a 4-in-5 chance that a team other than the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl. And we'll start with the Chiefs: More: Denver Broncos +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total), Yes, this is irrationally high. 2) The AFC North is a filthy, disgusting mosh pit whence nobody comes out alive. Top 5 in both points for and against, the Vikings 10-win record kept them from being higher on this list. Now the Colts will need to stay afloat while he recovers from foot surgery, which likely will cause him to miss the beginning of the season. Their strategy to run it back with nearly the same squad looks (on paper) like it could pay off; the Bucs have an 85% chance to reach the playoffs and a 15% shot to repeat as champions, according to FPI. They had one of the league's best defenses that year. Tom Brady led the offense with Randy Moss and Wes Welker to score 36.8 points per game. ONCE. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total), Yes, I just wrote that 20-0 is in play. This time, he didnt need a miracle catch to beat New England thanks to his sublime pass to Mario Manningham on the game-winning drive. 20. If the Saints slip a bit, there's a spot open for the Panthers to take a leap in 2021. One of the bigger mismatches in Super Bowl history, this one gets bonus points for being the first one and the Chiefs actually keeping things interesting for 30 minutes after going into the half trailing by only four points. This is my ranking of the best bets you can make on who will win Super Bowl 56 starting with the teams I absolutely would not recommend putting even a dollar on (with all odds via FOX Bet). Im more likely to become a billionaire than the Texans are to finish above .500, much less win the Super Bowl this season. So much needs to go right for the Broncos to get into the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl. The 49ers' projection is based on the assumption that Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting quarterback. 25. Aaron Rodgers hasnt been back since 2011., The Chiefs have gone to two straight. For the 2021 version of FPI, we made some under-the-hood improvements, including an updated expected points added model and a better predictive quarterback rating system.

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