Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). It requires a lot more than pure luck.). America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Nobody forgot about politics.". During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. . They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Watch Hampton City. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Watauga has gone for. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. 3. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. In their . We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. 03:30. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Twitter Twitter The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. That report was issued on Nov. 12. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. Ron Elving . No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. All Rights Reserved. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. The divisions were everywhere. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. Their hopes are real. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. But it's also not unprecedented. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Until this year. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . These are the bellwether counties. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Trump won 18 of the 19. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. The matters that way on their minds are real. Still, the state's worth watching. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. Lets find a coin, and flip it. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Arapahoe County. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. (subject to censorship). "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Website Updates Paused With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections.

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